Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Current price
53.5¢
+4.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 53.5%
$313.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution hinges on evaluating the token price at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the token becomes publicly tradable, multiplied by its total supply. The primary area to watch is that no specific data aggregator or pricing venue is named; resolution instead relies on identifying the most liquid price source available, which introduces decider judgment if prices or reported trading volumes diverge across exchanges. In addition, total supply figures can occasionally differ across tracking platforms depending on how unminted or locked allocations are counted. If no token launches by December 31, 2027, the market automatically settles as No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market predicts whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token will exceed $800 million one day after its launch. The market has a specific deadline for the token launch to occur.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $800 million. This FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The measurement occurs at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch. The market resolves No if the FDV is not greater than $800 million at the specified time. The market also resolves No if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. For a launch to count, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The resolution source for the token price is the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — If Predict.fun does not launch a token by this date and time, the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
No resolution source is identified in this explainer.
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