Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Current price
1.7¢
−1.85¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$426.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than an official declaration or designated monitoring body. While the rules provide explicit inclusion criteria—such as requiring physical interdiction or enforced closures that stop foreign commercial traffic for at least 24 hours—and clear exclusions for military drills, economic sanctions, and offshore islet incidents, determining whether gray-zone actions deny a significant portion of commercial traffic requires judgment. Disputes could occur if China conducts aggressive exercises or quarantine measures that disrupt traffic without unambiguously meeting the threshold of enforced denial.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying blockade is: - Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours. - Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa). - Is declared and enforced, de facto (e.g., it is established that China is blocking a significant portion of foreign commercial traffic, as described above, by a wide consensus of credible reporting regardless of whether China has issued a statement or not), or China-issued navigation/airspace prohibitions covering Taiwan's main island's approach lanes that are actively enforced so that most foreign commercial access is denied. A qualifying blockade is not: - Military or naval exercises or drills (established with warning areas or NOTAMs that do not actively stop third-country ships/aircraft and do not materially deny access). - Purely economic or coercive measures (e.g., sanctions, customs delays, fishing bans, cyber/GPS jamming) without physical interdiction or enforced closure). - Weather/accident-related closures or voluntary rerouting by operators absent PRC enforcement. - Islet-only incidents that do not involve the main island of Taiwan. - Seizure or inspection of a single vessel/aircraft by itself, unless part of an enforced pattern that denies access as defined above. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the People's Republic of China announces or de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade against the main island of Taiwan in 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China announces or de facto establishes an aerial or naval blockade covering part or all of Taiwan's main island by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying blockade must actively deny most foreign commercial access and prevent normal ingress or egress to or from main ports or airports by threat or use of force for at least 24 hours. Military drills that do not actively stop third-country traffic, purely economic or cyber measures without physical interdiction, weather closures, islet-only incidents, and isolated vessel seizures do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying blockade occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Blockade deadline: — Qualifying blockade must be established by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
A broad consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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