Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
Current price
84.5¢
Implied probability 84.5%
$886.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market defines a clear measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch and a standard formula for fully diluted valuation. However, the price source is loosely specified as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a designated price aggregator, decentralized exchange pool, or centralized exchange, which creates room for interpretation if different venues report diverging prices at that exact moment. Furthermore, the source for verifying the total token supply is not explicitly stated. A long-stop deadline of December 31, 2027, ensures the market resolves definitively to No if no token launch occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Predict.fun (https://predict.fun/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token exceeds $400M one day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Predict.fun's governance token is greater than $400M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $400M at that time, or if Predict.fun does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution pricing is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Latest time for Predict.fun to launch a token before the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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