Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
Current price
0.8¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.8%
$156.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation or removal, even if the effective date of departure is scheduled for after the cutoff date or later in the future. The rules also rely on a consensus of credible reporting alongside official German government statements, granting the resolver discretion to determine whether a consensus exists. Additionally, the rules assume Merz becomes Chancellor and state that he must cease to hold the role, which could create confusion if he never assumes office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz leaves the office of Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026. An announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany for any period of time before October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal prior to the market's end date also immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it formally takes effect. The market resolves to No if he remains Chancellor throughout the period. The outcome is determined by the government of Germany or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
The government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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