Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: March 31, 2027 at 18% (−2 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $2.5M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany across a series of prospective target dates in 2026. Each market evaluates whether he leaves office or has his resignation or removal announced by a specific date.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of specific deadline dates. Because each market asks whether he is out by a given date, an earlier departure or announcement would cause multiple markets with later cutoff dates to resolve Yes as well.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market's end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. If neither condition occurs by the cutoff, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by the government of Germany or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October cutoff date: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the October 31, 2026 market
- November cutoff date: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the November 30, 2026 market
- December cutoff date: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for the December 31, 2026 market
Resolution source
The government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 18% | ▼ 2 | Med | Med | |
| December 31, 2026 | 6% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| November 30, 2026 | 3% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| October 31, 2026 | 1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| June 30, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | Low | |
| December 31, 2027 | — | — | Not rated | Med |