Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?
Current price
45.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 45.5%
$19.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution does not rely on a single binding registry or designated official arbiter, instead depending on joint government announcements or a consensus of credible news reporting to confirm that an agreement exists. The rules clearly distinguish between a qualifying general pause and excluded arrangements: localized truces, partial restrictions on specific target types, unilateral pauses, and agreements to negotiate without a firm, dated commitment to halt fighting will not count. Additionally, a qualifying deal signed before the deadline triggers a positive outcome even if the active cessation of fighting is scheduled to take effect at a later date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a qualifying ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027. It requires a mutually agreed general suspension of direct military engagement with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially reached by May 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that provide a mutually agreed general pause in the conflict with an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting, even if the pause takes effect after the deadline. Informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, agreements outlining future talks without a dated stop-fighting commitment, and category- or location-specific restrictions do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which a qualifying ceasefire agreement must be reached.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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