Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Current price
57.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 57.5%
$781.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify an exact measurement time of 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, calculating FDV as total supply multiplied by the token price. However, the resolution source is defined only as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or oracle. If the valuation is near the $1B mark at the snapshot time, resolving the outcome requires discretion to identify which platform was the most liquid and what its exact price was. A long backstop date of December 31, 2027 resolves the market to No if no token launches before then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Variational's governance token reaches a Fully Diluted Valuation exceeding $1 billion exactly one calendar day after it publicly launches.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $1 billion at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The valuation is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the valuation does not exceed $1 billion at that time, or if Variational does not launch a qualifying token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Pricing is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token has launched by this date and time.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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