Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.15%
$951.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question omits the target year, which the rules clarify is December 31, 2026. Because SpaceX is currently a private company, evaluating its market capitalization alongside publicly traded companies as of market close creates ambiguity regarding valuation methodology if the firm remains unlisted. Furthermore, no specific financial data provider or official exchange feed is named, leaving resolution dependent on decider judgment of what constitutes a consensus of credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether SpaceX will hold the largest market capitalization in the world at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if SpaceX is the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The market resolves to No if any other company has the largest market capitalization at that time. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Evaluation Date: — Market capitalization is evaluated as of market close on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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