Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Current price
87.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 87.5%
$1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the calculation method and the exact measurement timestamp, defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token becoming publicly transferable and tradable. However, the resolution source is broadly defined as the most liquid price source available rather than a named price aggregator or exchange. If the token trades at different prices across decentralized and centralized venues near the valuation threshold, selecting which venue had the highest liquidity introduces decider latitude. The market includes a clear long-term deadline of December 31, 2027, resolving negatively if no token launch occurs.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $500 million exactly one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token is greater than $500M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not greater than $500M at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Latest date and time for Variational to launch a token before the market resolves to No.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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