Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?
Current price
68.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 68.5%
$48.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market sets explicit criteria for what counts as a ceasefire, requiring a mutual commitment to suspend direct military engagement and excluding unilateral pauses, informal understandings, or localized/target-specific arrangements. Resolution can occur as soon as a qualifying agreement is officially reached, even if its implementation date falls after the deadline. However, determining whether an accord meets the threshold of a general pause rather than a limited operational agreement relies heavily on decider interpretation when evaluating official statements or assessing what constitutes a consensus across credible reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a mutual ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027. It requires a general pause across the conflict rather than localized pauses or specific target restrictions, and resolves positively upon agreement even if the ceasefire takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a general ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that contain an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement, even if the ceasefire takes effect after the deadline. Agreements with only future negotiation frameworks, informal understandings, backchannel communications, unilateral pauses, or narrow geographic/target restrictions do not qualify. The market resolves to No otherwise. Resolution is decided using official information from the Russian and Ukrainian governments and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Cutoff deadline: — Agreement must be reached by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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