Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
2.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$821.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question does not state the target year, but the rules clarify the determination date as December 31, 2026, at market close. The primary risk stems from the lack of a designated financial database or official data provider to measure market capitalization; instead, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the top-ranked company. December 31 can also feature abbreviated trading hours across global exchanges, though market close provides a clear reference point.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alphabet will be the largest company in the world by market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Alphabet has the largest market capitalization in the world at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if any other company holds the largest market capitalization at that time. A consensus of credible reporting will be used as the deciding source to determine the outcome.
Key dates
- Measurement date: — Market capitalization is evaluated as of market close on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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