Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
8 live outcomes · highest priced: $300M at 93% · first close Jan 1, 2028 · $3.6M total volume
About this event
This event tracks the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token one day after its public launch. Its markets measure whether the calculated FDV exceeds specific valuation thresholds.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a ladder of valuation thresholds. Multiple markets can resolve Yes if the token's FDV surpasses higher target thresholds, automatically fulfilling all lower threshold markets.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if the FDV of Variational's governance token is greater than the specified target value at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Otherwise, it resolves to No. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price from the most liquid price source available. If no token launches by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the markets resolve to No.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Markets resolve to No if no token launches by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300M | 93% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $500M | 88% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| $800M | 73% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $1B | 59% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $2B | 27% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $3B | 12% | ▼ 1 | Med | Med | |
| $4B | 7% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $5B | 3% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| $200M | — | — | Med | Med | |
| $100M | — | — | Med | Med |