Will Russia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
Current price
1.3¢
+0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.3%
$1.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market resolves based on the official winner of UEFA EURO 2028 using UEFA as the primary source. However, participants should note the early resolution provision: if it becomes mathematically or officially impossible for Russia to win at any point—such as through exclusion, suspension from qualification, or elimination—the market will resolve early to No. Additionally, if the tournament is cancelled or postponed beyond July 23, 2028, the market resolves to Other rather than remaining open or resolving to No.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the nation that wins the UEFA EURO 2028. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed nation to win the UEFA EURO 2028 per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will win the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. It features an early No resolution if Russia is eliminated, and an Other resolution if the tournament is delayed or cancelled.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia wins the UEFA EURO 2028 tournament. The market resolves to No if at any point it becomes impossible for Russia to win per the rules of UEFA, such as being eliminated in the playoffs. The market resolves to Other if the UEFA EURO 2028 is cancelled, postponed after July 23, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or if there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe. Official information from UEFA will serve as the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Postponement cutoff deadline: — Tournament must declare a winner by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Official information from UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.