Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Current price
40.5¢
+3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 40.5%
$2.7M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The most significant condition to watch is the clause triggering early resolution: an announcement of resignation or removal immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when the change actually takes effect or if circumstances change before the effective date. Resolution relies primarily on official government communications or Netanyahu himself, but the rules also permit falling back on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel by the end of 2026. Resolution is unusual because a formal announcement of his resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive outcome, regardless of when it actually takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the end date. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the market end date also immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when that departure takes effect. The market resolves to No if he remains in office continuously through the end date without such an announcement. Resolution is determined using official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date: — End of 2026 (ET) specified by the question and rules.
Resolution source
Official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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