Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
67.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 67.5%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question title omits the target year, which the rules explicitly define as December 31, 2026. Additionally, the resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single definitive financial data provider or official exchange feed. Because market capitalization calculations can vary across financial media based on differing share counts or foreign exchange conversions, a close margin between top companies could leave resolution open to interpretation without a specified primary authority.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether NVIDIA will be the largest company in the world by market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if NVIDIA is the largest company in the world by market capitalization as of market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves No if any other company holds the largest market capitalization at that time. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Measurement date: — Market capitalization is evaluated as of market close on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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