Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
0.45¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.45%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks a binary question about Microsoft, but the rules state the market resolves to whichever company is largest, reflecting a slight mismatch between market phrasing and rule structure. Additionally, the question omits the year while the rule specifies December 31, 2026. Resolution depends on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified financial terminal, exchange feed, or market data provider, leaving determination of market capitalizations and currency conversions to judgment rather than a single definitive authority.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Microsoft will be the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Microsoft is the largest company in the world by market cap at market close on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if Microsoft is not the largest company in the world by market cap at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Measurement date: — Evaluated as of market close.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
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