Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Current price
71.5¢
+2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 71.5%
$46.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules significantly expand the scope beyond direct bilateral talks by allowing indirect in-person meetings conducted via third-party mediators or interlocutors, as long as they act with government authorization. Deciding whether a backchannel or shuttle-diplomacy session meets the authorization standard and counts as an indirect meeting relies on judgment. Resolution is determined either by official government confirmation from either country or by a consensus of credible media reporting, which introduces discretion since no specific news outlets or registry are specified.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Russia-Ukraine relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether official representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold an authorized in-person diplomatic meeting before the end of 2026, including meetings held indirectly through designated mediators.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if authorized representatives of Russia and Ukraine hold a deliberate, in-person diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Indirect in-person meetings through authorized mediators or facilitators count, provided the meeting is publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Brief greetings, chance encounters, non-diplomatic talks, phone calls, and remote meetings do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying meeting occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official government statements from Russia and Ukraine or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The diplomatic meeting must take place by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine, and a consensus of credible reporting
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