Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?
Current price
27.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.05%
$407.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the calculation time as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token's launch and set a clear final cutoff date of December 31, 2027. However, the resolution source is broadly defined as 'the most liquid price source available' rather than specifying a particular exchange, aggregator, or price oracle. This leaves discretion to the resolver to identify which platform qualifies as most liquid at the target timestamp and to determine the definitive total supply figure used to calculate the fully diluted valuation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $2 billion one calendar day after its public launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $2B at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. For a launch to count, the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The valuation is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the valuation is not greater than $2B at the specified time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The price is determined by the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token is launched by this deadline.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.