Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Current price
2.1¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.1%
$44.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clarify that qualifying military action means an offensive intended to establish control over any territory administered by Taiwan, specifically including inhabited offshore islands while excluding uninhabited ones. This means actions on outlying islands count, but limited strikes, naval blockades, or gray-zone pressure lacking a clear intent to seize control may not qualify under the text. Deciding whether an action meets this standard relies on a broad list of potential sources—including official statements from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, UN Security Council members, or a consensus of credible reporting—with no explicit hierarchy, creating leeway in determining the outcome if major powers characterize an escalation differently.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether China will initiate a military offensive to take control of territory administered by Taiwan by the end of 2026. Resolution specifies that inhabited islands qualify, but uninhabited islands are excluded.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if China launches a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of territory administered by the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Actions targeting inhabited islands under Taiwanese administration qualify for a Yes resolution, but actions targeting uninhabited islands do not count. The market resolves to No if no qualifying military offensive occurs by the deadline. Resolution will be determined based on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or alternatively by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Deadline for China to commence a qualifying military offensive.
Resolution source
Official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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