US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Current price
8.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$5.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides detailed definitions of qualifying strikes, including specific weapon types and exclusions for territorial waters, artillery, naval shelling, and intercepted projectiles even if debris impacts land. However, resolution relies on determining a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single authoritative registry or official source, leaving latitude to the decider. Additionally, there is an attribution clause where statements by Donald Trump specifically count as confirmation, and a strict timeout provision that resolves the market to No if confirmation is not established within two days after the cutoff, even if evidence emerges later.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States conducts an aerial bomb, drone, or missile strike that physically impacts terrestrial territory in Cuba by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike physically impacts ground territory in Cuba by December 31 ET, as announced or credibly reported. Qualifying strikes include aerial bombs, drones, or cruise, ballistic, FPV, and ATGM missiles launched by US military, intelligence, or other government operatives, including any strike claimed by Donald Trump or the US government. Qualifying areas include terrestrial land, rivers, lakes, and ports, but exclude territorial seas. Intercepted drones or missiles, surface-to-air strikes, artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, and cyberattacks do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying strike occurs and is confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second day after the resolution date, even if a strike is later confirmed. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Strike cutoff deadline: December 31 ET; year not specified in rules.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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