Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Current price
0.2¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.2%
$503.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks who will be the next Prime Minister, but the rules specifically require the individual to be officially appointed and sworn in following the 2026 Israeli legislative election or an early election. This means any leadership change or succession taking place before an election, as well as any interim or caretaker appointments, will not trigger resolution. Resolution relies primarily on official Israeli government announcements with credible news reporting as a backup. There is a long time horizon with an ultimate cutoff date of December 31, 2027, after which the market resolves to Other if no eligible Prime Minister has taken office.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ofer Winter will be the next individual officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 legislative election or an early election.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Ofer Winter is officially appointed and formally sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 parliamentary election or any early election. Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers do not count. The market resolves No if another individual is officially appointed and sworn in under these rules. The market resolves to Other if no Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel decides the outcome, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Scheduled parliamentary election: — Date Israeli legislative elections are scheduled to take place.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no qualifying Prime Minister is sworn in by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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