Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Current price
2.75¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.75%
$15.1M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government publication or designated authority, leaving substantial latitude to deciders when interpreting opaque political developments. The criteria define removal from power broadly to include being dismissed, detained, disqualified, or simply prevented from fulfilling duties for any length of time, which creates room for debate around temporary medical incapacitation or internal party disputes. In addition, the rules specify an explicit window starting July 3, 2025, and ending December 31, 2026, so any departure occurring prior to that start date would not qualify despite the broader question phrasing.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xi Jinping is removed from power as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Xi Jinping is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Removal from power occurs if he announces his resignation as General Secretary, or is dismissed, detained, disqualified, loses his position, or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within the timeframe. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Start of window: — Beginning of the evaluation period for removal from power
- End of window: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for removal from power
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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