Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Current price
25.35¢
−3.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.35%
$1.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question omits the specific target year, but the rules clarify that it evaluates market capitalization at market close on December 31, 2026. No primary financial data provider or exchange is designated to measure market capitalization; instead, resolution relies entirely on an undefined consensus of credible reporting. Because different financial data sources can compute global market capitalizations differently—particularly when accounting for multi-class shares, non-US listings like state-backed firms, and differing global market closing times on New Year's Eve—the lack of an authoritative reference source leaves room for dispute if valuations are close.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Apple will hold the largest market capitalization among all companies globally at market close on December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Apple is the largest company in the world by market capitalization on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The market resolves No if any other company holds the largest market capitalization at that time. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market close evaluation date: — Market capitalization is measured at market close on this date.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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