Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
Current price
93.1¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 93.1%
$273.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the valuation formula and anchor the measurement to 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. However, the resolution source is described only as the most liquid price source available rather than naming a specific exchange, aggregator, or price oracle, which requires discretion if price or volume metrics differ across venues. Additionally, participants must account for an extended timeline, as the market remains open until December 31, 2027, resolving to No if no qualifying token launch occurs by that date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the fully diluted valuation of Variational's governance token exceeds $300 million one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total supply multiplied by price) of Variational's governance token is greater than $300 million at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following its launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $300 million at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Token pricing is determined using the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if no token launches by this time
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
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