Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Current price
6.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.5%
$865.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules precisely define 'returns to normal' as an IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching 60 or higher, pointing to a specific dataset URL. However, the title omits the year, whereas the rules establish an extended timeline running through November 30, 2026. The market resolves immediately if the threshold is met early, and a qualifying data point cannot be retroactively disqualified by later revisions. There is also a 14-day waiting period if the final date's data is delayed and a three-day hold window to allow for clerical corrections by the source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rebounds to a specified volume threshold by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or higher for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Qualifying transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by IMF Portwatch do not count. The market resolves to No if no 7-day moving average reaches 60 once data for November 30, 2026 is published, or 14 calendar days (ET) after that date if final data is delayed. Revisions made after data is published for November 30, 2026 are disregarded, and earlier revisions cannot disqualify a previously qualifying data point. IMF Portwatch transit calls data decides the outcome.
Key dates
- End of measurement period: — Final date for which a 7-day moving average of 60 transit calls can qualify for resolution.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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