AI bubble burst in 2026?
Current price
6.95¢
+0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.95%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title refers broadly to an AI bubble burst, but resolution strictly depends on meeting at least three out of six specific trigger events, which include stock drops from all-time highs, company bankruptcies, an acquisition, or GPU rental prices dropping on a specific index. General consensus or media reports of an AI downturn will not trigger resolution on their own. The phrase requiring three events to occur within 90 days of the specified timeframe is somewhat ambiguous as to whether the events must fall within 90 days of each other or within 90 days of the market's final date. Resolution can occur early as soon as three criteria are satisfied, relying primarily on official exchange data, company filings, and the linked pricing index.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the artificial intelligence industry experiences a defined downturn in 2026. Resolution is unusual because it strictly relies on a quantitative checklist requiring at least three of six specific financial, corporate, and hardware price triggers to occur within a 90-day window, regardless of general media reports.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if at least three of the specified six trigger events occur within a 90-day window within the timeframe ending by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. The qualifying events are: NVDA closing down 50% from its all-time high; SOXX closing down 40% from its all-time high; OpenAI or Anthropic declaring bankruptcy; OpenAI being acquired; H100 rental prices dropping to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days on the SiliconData Silicon Index; or a major AI hardware supplier (TSM, ASML, AVGO, ANET, or SMCI) closing stock price dropping 50% from its all-time high. The market resolves immediately once three conditions are met. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The primary resolution sources are official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges, alongside a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — End of market timeframe at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from respective companies and listing exchanges, SiliconData Silicon Index, and a consensus of credible reporting
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