Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
Current price
5.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$2.3M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Holders should note that an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive resolution, regardless of whether the actual departure date falls after the specified deadline. Furthermore, the condition that he must cease to hold the office means that if he never assumes the chancellorship at all during the period, the market would resolve negatively. The resolution source allows for judgment calls, as an undefined consensus among credible media outlets can be used alongside official German government statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether Friedrich Merz leaves the office of Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is that an official announcement of his resignation or removal triggers immediate resolution, even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time before the deadline, or if an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is the government of Germany, though a consensus of credible reporting also suffices.
Key dates
- End date: — The deadline by which Friedrich Merz must cease to be Chancellor or have an announcement made.
Resolution source
The government of Germany or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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