Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Current price
15.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$74.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market requires the United States to commence an offensive intended to establish control over Iranian territory, which narrows the scope beyond standard airstrikes or limited naval skirmishes. Determining military intent can introduce interpretive ambiguity if limited ground operations or brief border incursions occur without an explicit declaration of intent to hold territory. Additionally, resolution relies on an open-ended consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official government or international body, granting significant latitude to the resolving party to interpret whether an operation meets the defined criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States will launch a military offensive to gain control over any Iranian territory before 2027. Sovereign territory is explicitly defined based on de facto control as of November 4, 2025.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this purpose, territory de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET, is considered sovereign territory of that nation. The market resolves to No if no such offensive occurs by the deadline. A consensus of credible sources determines the outcome.
Key dates
- Territory baseline date: — Point in time determining de facto controlled sovereign territory for Iran and the U.S.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for the U.S. to commence a qualifying military offensive.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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