Trump out as President before 2027?
Current price
3.85¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.85%
$12.7M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Participants should note that an announcement of resignation or removal immediately triggers a positive resolution, even if the departure date is set for well into the future beyond the 2026 deadline. There is slight tension between the opening clause covering cessation of office for any period of time and the later clause specifying that only permanent removal qualifies, though the text explicitly clarifies that temporary 25th Amendment incapacities do not count unless sustained by Congress. No single official authority is designated to confirm the outcome; instead, resolution relies on an adjudicator determining whether a consensus of credible media reporting exists.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump permanently ceases to be President of the United States before 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump resigns, is permanently removed, or otherwise ceases to be President for any period of time by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of his resignation or removal made before the deadline immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. A sustained Twenty-Fifth Amendment Section 4 invocation upheld by a two-thirds vote in both Houses of Congress qualifies for Yes, but temporary removal under Section 3, unsustained Section 4 invocations, or impeachment without removal do not count. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Deadline for Donald Trump to cease being President or for an announcement of his resignation or removal to occur.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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