Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?
Current price
30.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 30.5%
$192.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that an eligible agreement must involve a general, mutually agreed suspension of fighting with an explicit effective date, rather than a localized truce, unilateral pause, or framework for future talks. Crucially, the agreement only needs to be reached before the deadline, even if its start date falls after. However, resolution relies on official statements from both belligerents or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving the market decider to evaluate whether news coverage qualifies as a consensus and whether partial or phased cessation terms satisfy the general pause requirement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine reach a general ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027. An agreement qualifies as long as it is reached before the deadline, even if its scheduled implementation date falls after the deadline.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia and Ukraine officially reach a ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying agreements include broader peace deals, truces, or humanitarian pauses that mandate a mutually agreed, general suspension of direct military engagement effective on a specified date. Unilateral pauses, informal understandings, partial agreements restricted to specific targets or locations, and agreements merely outlining future negotiations do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is reached by the deadline. Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine alongside a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Ceasefire agreement must be reached by 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
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