US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
3 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 12% (−1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $4.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether the United States and Iran mutually sign or formally adopt a qualifying final nuclear deal by various specified target deadlines.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a ladder of chronological deadlines. Because each market asks if the deal occurs by a given date, an earlier agreement meeting the criteria will satisfy that deadline as well as subsequent deadlines, allowing more than one market to resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if a qualifying written diplomatic instrument between the US and Iran is mutually signed or adopted by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The instrument must be identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026 memorandum of understanding and must establish at least one concrete, measurable obligation limiting Iran's nuclear program. Later ratification, entry into force, or repudiation does not affect resolution. If text is delayed, resolution may pause for up to 28 days.
Key dates
- Announcement of diplomatic agreement:
- November deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- December deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran or their authorized representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 12% | ▼ 1 | Med | High | |
| November 30 | 6% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| October 31 | 1% | ±0 | Med | High |