Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$27.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on evaluating whether the core governing structures of the Islamic Republic have been dissolved or replaced, which depends entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official declaration or designated registry. The rules explicitly exclude internal coups, leadership successions, or partial territorial losses unless the regime loses control over a majority of Iran's population. In an ambiguous scenario—such as a military takeover by the Revolutionary Guards that sidelines the clergy but retains existing state mechanisms, or a protracted civil conflict with fragmented territorial control—determining whether a fundamentally different governing system has taken power or whether continuity was truly broken will require significant subjective interpretation by the market decider.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime falls or ceases to govern before 2027. Resolution requires a fundamental break in constitutional and governing continuity rather than standard political transitions, reforms, or internal leadership successions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Islamic Republic of Iran's current ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying events include a revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication where core structures—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, and clerical control over the IRGC—are dissolved, incapacitated, replaced by a fundamentally different system, or lose de facto power over a majority of Iran's population. A clear break in continuity, such as a new provisional government or constitution, is required. Routine elections, reforms, leadership succession, internal power shifts that preserve core institutions, and partial territorial losses do not qualify for Yes. The market resolves to No otherwise. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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