Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?
Current price
72.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 72.5%
$510K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly specify the measurement timestamp as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following the token launch, but leave the exact data source unspecified beyond 'the most liquid price source available.' In crypto markets, determining which exchange had the highest liquidity at a precise moment, alongside verifying the official total token supply for the FDV calculation, requires resolver discretion and can vary across different aggregators or tracking platforms. Additionally, the launch condition requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable, with an expiration date set for December 31, 2027 resolving to 'No' if no token launches by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Variational's governance token exceeds $800M exactly one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (total token supply multiplied by token price) of Variational's governance token is greater than $800M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $800M at that time, or if Variational does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution relies on the most liquid price source available.
Key dates
- Token launch deadline: — Market resolves to No if the token does not launch by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.