Iran leadership change by...?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: June 30, 2027 at 26% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $6.6M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a leadership change will occur in Iran by various target dates, specifically evaluating whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to serve as the de facto Supreme Leader of Iran within the specified timeframes.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates. Because each market asks if the leadership change occurs at any point between market creation and its listed date, multiple markets can resolve Yes if a leadership change occurs before an earlier deadline, which also falls before later deadlines.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). This includes being removed from power, detained, losing his position, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal qualifies for Yes regardless of when the departure takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- June 30, 2027 resolution deadline: — Resolution deadline (ET) for the June 30, 2027 market.
- December 31 resolution deadline: Resolution deadline (ET) for the December 31 market; year not specified in provided text.
- October 31 resolution deadline: Listed target date; year not specified in provided text.
- November 30 resolution deadline: Listed target date; year not specified in provided text.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 26% | ▲ 1 | High | Med | |
| December 31 | 12% | ±0 | High | High | |
| November 30 | 7% | ±0 | High | High | |
| October 31 | 2% | ±0 | High | High |