Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?
Current price
16.5¢
−1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$1.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides a precise quantitative threshold using a single named source and exact URL from IMF PortWatch. While the question uses subjective phrasing regarding an effective closure, the rules clearly define the condition as a 7-day moving average of transit calls falling to or below 10. The rules specify early resolution upon the threshold being met, a 14-day waiting window if year-end data is delayed, and clear mechanics for how data revisions are handled.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls to 10 or fewer transit calls on a 7-day moving average basis by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (Arrivals of Ships) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait of 10 or fewer for any date between market creation and December 31. Revisions will not disqualify a data point that previously met this condition. The market resolves to No if data for December 31 is published without the 7-day moving average meeting or falling below the threshold. If no data is published for December 31 within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market resolves based on the data published up to that time. Resolution is determined by IMF PortWatch data, and revisions made after December 31 data is published are disregarded.
Key dates
- Target end date: End of the measurement window (December 31).
- Data publication cutoff: 14 calendar days after December 31 to publish final data before resolving on available data.
Resolution source
IMF PortWatch
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