Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Current price
2.55¢
+1.65¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$2.8M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide a precise, objective definition for what constitutes traffic returning to normal: an IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls reaching at least 60. The resolution source is a dedicated, named public tracker with an explicit URL. Clear guidelines are established for early resolution once the target is met, handling data revisions, and managing potential publication delays with a 14-day cutoff after the October 31, 2026 deadline. Participants should note the specific metric threshold and the multi-year timeframe stated in the rules.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz reaches a specified threshold by October 31, 2026, based on reported 7-day moving average transit calls.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (Arrivals of Ships) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Counted ship types include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by IMF Portwatch are excluded. A previously published qualifying data point is not disqualified by later revisions. The market resolves to No if data through October 31, 2026 is published without meeting the threshold. If final date data is not published within 14 calendar days (ET) after the period ends, resolution occurs using data published up to that point. The deciding source is IMF Portwatch.
Key dates
- End of observation period: — Final date for which a 7-day moving average transit call volume of 60 or more can trigger a Yes resolution.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
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