Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?
Current price
0.95¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.95%
$841K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island to another entity by October 31, 2026. The rules clearly state that if control is disputed, contested, or unclear at the deadline, the market resolves to No. Additionally, temporary disruptions, bombardments, or offshore blockades do not satisfy the condition without another force establishing actual control. Participants should be aware that resolution does not rely on a single named arbiter, but rather on official government statements interpreted alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some room for subjective judgment regarding whether control was truly established versus merely contested.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran loses primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island to another authority by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island by the deadline. Actual control must be established; temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardments, sabotage, naval presence offshore, temporary disruptions, or unverified claims do not qualify. Control transferred via negotiated settlements or agreements qualifies only once physical control is established. The market resolves to No if Iran maintains control, or if control is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline. The resolution will be determined by official statements from relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline by which Iran must no longer control Kharg Island.
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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