Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.3¢
−0.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.3%
$25.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be president, is detained, or is deemed effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. An announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution even if the actual departure date falls after the market deadline. Deciders rely primarily on official statements from Putin or the Russian government, but they also have the discretion to resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. This discretion could become critical if there is conflicting reporting, an unconfirmed coup attempt, or opacity surrounding a health event or informal transfer of power.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Vladimir Putin ceases to be the President of Russia by December 31, 2026. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate resolution, even if the effective date occurs later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal made before the market's end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. Being detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling presidential duties also resolves the market to Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. The resolution source is official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date: — Cutoff date (ET) for Putin to cease being President or for an announcement to be made.
Resolution source
Official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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