Saudi airspace closed by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 17% · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $320.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Saudi Arabian airspace will be closed by specific future deadlines. Each market evaluates whether a qualifying official closure of the Jeddah Flight Information Region occurs before its stated cutoff date and time.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of time-based deadlines. Because a closure occurring before an earlier deadline also falls before subsequent deadlines, more than one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if the Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD is closed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or government order that generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the entire region (excluding weather, technical failures, pre-planned events, partial geographic or altitude closures, traffic management restrictions, or third-party no-fly zones). Resolution is determined by official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including GACA, SANS, the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on October 31 (year not specified in rules)
- December 31 deadline: 11:59 PM ET on December 31 (year not specified in rules)
Resolution source
Official information from the Saudi Arabian government (Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS)) and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 5% | ±0 | Med | High |