Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Current price
7.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7.5%
$613.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on determining whether military actions constitute an offensive intended to establish control over sovereign territory, which leaves room for dispute in the event of cross-border skirmishes, hybrid operations, or limited strikes where intent is contested. Additionally, no specific official body or index is designated to make the determination, so the market resolves based on subjective evaluation of what constitutes a consensus among credible reporting outlets. The rules clearly exclude Ukraine and establish a baseline for disputed territories using de facto control at market creation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will launch a military offensive against any UN member state other than Ukraine by the end of 2026. Territory is evaluated based on which UN member state held de facto control over it when the market was created.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, excluding Ukraine, by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. For this purpose, land de facto controlled by any UN member state at market creation counts as that country's sovereign territory. The market resolves to No if no qualifying offensive commences by the deadline. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Russia must commence a qualifying military offensive by this date and time.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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