Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Current price
12.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes capture by referencing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) interactive map, specifying the exact qualifying map layers, coordinates, and visual border thresholds. Control must persist across at least one full daily update cycle to count, and once full control is established, subsequent loss does not invalidate a positive resolution. A clear fallback hierarchy to DeepStateMap and credible reporting exists if the primary source becomes unavailable. Additionally, actual physical control resulting from a negotiated settlement qualifies even without map updates. These explicit mechanics leave minimal room for subjective interpretation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia will capture the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026. Resolution is tied to specific geographic map layers and persistence rules from the Institute for the Study of War, or physical control via a negotiated settlement.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the entirety of Kostyantynivka municipality is shaded red on the ISW map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying shading includes Assessed Russian Control, Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine, or Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours, and must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas do not qualify. Actual physical control established via a negotiated settlement also resolves Yes, though mere announcements do not. Once full capture occurs, any subsequent loss of control is disregarded. The market resolves to No if the area is not fully captured or shaded red by the deadline. The primary deciding source is the ISW Ukraine map, with DeepStateMap and a consensus of credible reporting acting as fallbacks.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Russia to capture all of Kostyantynivka according to qualifying sources.
Resolution source
ISW Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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