Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
Current price
17.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 17.5%
$750.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The question asks if the individual is seen in public, but the rules expand this to include any authentic photograph, video, or digital appearance such as a live broadcast. Determining whether media is genuine relies on judging a consensus of credible reporting to rule out archival footage, deepfakes, AI generation, or staged reproductions. No single official source or registry is designated to verify authenticity, leaving resolution to the market decider's interpretation of media coverage.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market. The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei is photographed or recorded on video within the specified timeframe. Resolution requires authentic, newly captured media and explicitly excludes posthumous releases, archival footage, and AI-generated content.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei is photographed or videotaped between market creation and December 31 (ET). The qualifying images or video must be authentic, taken, and released within the market timeframe. Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, qualify. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, and posthumous releases do not qualify. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Resolution is determined by the image or video itself alongside a consensus of credible reporting confirming its authenticity.
Key dates
- End date: December 31 (ET)
Resolution source
The image or video of Mojtaba Khamenei and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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