Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?
Current price
4.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.5%
$217.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise technical criteria for what constitutes a closure of the Jeddah Flight Information Region (OEJD), requiring a formal NOTAM or official order suspending general commercial aviation. However, participants must navigate an extensive list of nine specific exclusions, which disqualify technical outages, weather events, partial sector or altitude restrictions, targeted state/carrier bans, and ground stops. Resolution relies on official Saudi aviation authorities as well as a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some decider discretion if reporting conflicts with official notices.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Arabian airspace (the Jeddah Flight Information Region / OEJD) is closed to general commercial aviation by October 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the responsible aviation or governmental authority issues a NOTAM or official order closing the Jeddah FIR (OEJD) across transit, arrival, and departure commercial flights by 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026. A closure takes effect when implemented, or when issued if no effective time is given. Limited exceptions for emergency, humanitarian, or authorized flights do not disqualify a closure if commercial flights are prohibited by default. Specific exclusions do not qualify, including weather, holidays, pre-planned events, technical failures, nationality-specific bans, partial airspace or altitude closures, air traffic flow measures, and restrictions from non-responsible parties. The market resolves to No if no qualifying closure occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official Saudi government sources (Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, GACA, SANS) and credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Airspace closure must occur by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Saudi Arabian government (including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, GACA, and SANS) and a consensus of credible reporting
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