Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?
Current price
1.85¢
+0.55¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.85%
$28.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market relies on a single, clearly designated quantitative metric from a named official database: the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of ship transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz. The rules define the qualifying threshold precisely at 60 or above, specify which ship classes count, provide the exact web URL, and detail how data revisions and reporting delays are handled. Once a qualifying data point is published, later revisions cannot retroactively overturn the outcome, which eliminates ambiguity surrounding historical data adjustments.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether October will be the first month where Strait of Hormuz daily ship transit calls reach a 7-day moving average of 60 or more.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60, and the date associated with the first qualifying data point falls in October. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, while ships not reported by the source are excluded. The market resolves to No once data for the final date of the month is published without reaching the threshold, or if a prior month qualifies first. If no qualifying data point is published for any month through December 31, 2026, the market resolves to No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026. If December 31, 2026 data is not published by January 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, resolution relies on data published up to that point. The deciding source is IMF Portwatch transit calls data.
Key dates
- End of 2026 reporting threshold: — Date for checking if a qualifying data point has been published for any month.
- Final data cutoff: — Deadline for December 31, 2026 data publication before resolving on available data.
Resolution source
IMF Portwatch
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