Iran leadership change by December 31?
Current price
12.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.5%
$5.2M total volume · YES/NO
High gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules premise the resolution on whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader or de facto leader of Iran, which creates significant ambiguity if his status as the actual leader is disputed or unconfirmed during the period. Determining whether someone has been prevented from acting as a de facto leader requires substantial subjective judgment, and the rules rely entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or named authority. Additionally, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution even if the actual departure is scheduled for a future date outside the market window.
- Wording ambiguity
- High
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to serve as the de facto leader of Iran by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and December 31 (ET). This includes being removed from power, detained, losing his position, or being prevented from acting as de facto leader. An official announcement of his resignation or removal also qualifies for Yes, regardless of when the departure takes effect. The market resolves to No if he remains in power through the deadline. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: December 31 (ET)
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.