Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
Current price
6.85¢
+0.45¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.85%
$206.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The market contains notable interpretive breadth regarding what constitutes being 'effectively removed' or 'permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties' of leadership, especially given the distinction between formal royal titles and de facto power. Resolution relies primarily on official Saudi government communications, but the decider retains broad discretion to resolve the market based on a consensus of credible media reporting. Additionally, an early resolution clause dictates that any formal announcement of removal or resignation triggers an immediate affirmative outcome, even if the transition is scheduled to take effect at a future date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be the leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026. Resolution is unusual because an announcement of his resignation or removal immediately triggers resolution even if the effective date is later, and detention or permanent incapacity also qualifies.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be the leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). A Yes resolution also occurs if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date immediately resolves the market to Yes, regardless of the effective date. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met. Resolution is determined using official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the Saudi government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Specified deadline for Mohammed bin Salman to cease being leader (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.