Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$103.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly identify the exact airspace region (Jeddah FIR/OEJD) and specify the required official mechanism (NOTAM or government order), but they include an extensive list of detailed exclusions that position holders must track closely. Specifically, partial closures by altitude or sector, targeted airline/nationality bans, technical failures, weather, ground stops, or advisories from foreign entities do not qualify. Additionally, while named official Saudi aviation bodies serve as primary sources, the rules also permit resolution via a consensus of credible reporting, introducing some decider judgment if official statements are ambiguous or delayed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region (FIR)/OEJD) is closed between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying closure occurs when the aviation or governmental authority responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region issues a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM), or other official order under the regulations of the jurisdiction responsible for that airspace region, which generally cancels or suspends commercial aviation across the specified airspace region, and such closure is not excluded under the exclusions provision below. A qualifying closure must apply generally to commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from the specified airspace region. A closure is not disqualified because the order permits limited exceptions, including humanitarian, medical, repatriation, or emergency flights, or select flights authorized by the responsible authority, provided that commercial flights are prohibited by default, rather than permitted subject to conditions or restrictions. The following are not qualifying closures: (i) closures due to weather, including volcanic and seismic activity; (ii) closures for holidays or religious observances; (iii) closures planned or announced before market creation; (iv) closures occurring on a regular cadence whose occurrence was determined before market creation, even if not announced; (v) closures resulting from the failure or malfunction of air traffic control, navigation, communications, power, or other technical systems; (vi) restrictions applying to aircraft by nationality, state of registry, operator, or ownership rather than to commercial traffic generally; (vii) closures of a subset of the specified airspace region, including geographic sectors and altitude bands; (viii) ground stops, flow restrictions, capacity reductions, or other air traffic management measures that delay or restrict traffic without closing the specified airspace region to commercial aviation; and (ix) warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions imposed by any party other than the aviation or governmental authorities responsible for overseeing the specified airspace region. A qualifying closure is deemed to occur at the time the closure takes effect, regardless of when the closure is announced or the order is issued. Where no effective time is included in the order, the closure is deemed to take effect at the time the order is issued. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Saudi Arabian airspace (the Jeddah FIR/OEJD) experiences a qualifying official closure to commercial aviation by December 31.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Saudi Arabian Airspace (The Jeddah Flight Information Region/OEJD) is closed between market creation and December 31 at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying closure requires an official NOTAM or government order generally cancelling or suspending commercial transit, arrival, and departure flights. Closures do not qualify if caused by weather, holidays, technical malfunctions, regular cadences, pre-planned events, restrictions by nationality/operator, partial geographic/altitude sector closures, standard air traffic management delays, or orders by outside parties. The market resolves to No if no such qualifying closure takes effect by the deadline. Official information from Saudi authorities (including the Ministry of Transport, GACA, and SANS) and credible reporting determine the outcome.
Key dates
- Specified closure deadline: — Qualifying airspace closure must take effect by this date and time.
Resolution source
Official information from the Saudi Arabian government, including the Ministry of Transport and Logistic Services, the General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA), and Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS), and a consensus of credible reporting.
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