Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Current price
2.55¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.55%
$3.2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules primarily rely on a specific Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map URL and define exact legend categories that qualify. However, there are several specific conditions to track: map changes must persist through at least one subsequent update cycle to count, and temporary map glitches are disregarded. In addition, territory gained via a negotiated settlement can trigger a positive resolution even if not shaded on the primary map, provided actual physical control rather than mere legal agreement is established, which introduces an unstandardized standard of proof for that specific scenario. Clear fallback sources are designated if the primary map becomes permanently unavailable.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Ukraine recaptures or gains actual control over any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET according to qualifying shading on the ISW map. Qualifying shading includes blue shading, continuous shading for reported gains in the past 24 hours, or claimed counteroffensives, and it must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. The black border around Crimea and temporary map glitches do not qualify. Actual physical control established via a negotiated settlement also resolves Yes, though de jure announcements without actual control do not. Once captured, subsequent loss of control is disregarded. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. The primary source is the ISW Ukraine map, followed by DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable, and a consensus of credible reporting if both are permanently unavailable.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for Ukraine to capture or gain control of Crimean territory.
Resolution source
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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