Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 8% · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $1.7M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Iran will lose primary governmental or military control of Kharg Island by specific dates in 2026, measuring whether another state, occupying force, or authority establishes actual control on the island.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a timeline ladder of target dates. More than one market can resolve Yes, because if Iran loses control before the earlier deadline (October 31, 2026), the condition will also be satisfied for the later deadline (December 31, 2026).
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET on the given date), defined as Iran no longer exercising primary governmental or military control and another entity establishing actual control. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Temporary raids, isolated landings, sabotage, offshore presence, or unverified claims do not qualify. If control is contested, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the deadline, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official statements from relevant governments/militaries and consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- December deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 1% | ±0 | Med | High |