Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
Current price
0.4¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$165.8K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market depends on judging whether a regime has experienced a fundamental break in continuity or merely an internal power shift, which can be contentious during chaotic transitions. Outcome verification relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official registry or standard legal mechanism, giving the resolver wide discretion to determine whether the government has lost de facto power over a majority of the population. However, the rules clearly define the deadline as October 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET and explicitly exclude routine leadership successions, internal coups that preserve core structures, and partial territorial losses.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Islamic Republic of Iran's ruling regime is overthrown, collapses, or otherwise ceases to govern by October 31, 2026. Resolution requires a clear break in governing continuity rather than standard leadership succession or internal power shifts.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if credible reporting confirms that the Islamic Republic's core structures (such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical rule) are dissolved, incapacitated, replaced by a fundamentally different governing system, or lose de facto power over a majority of Iran's population by the deadline. This can happen through revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, including replacement by a new constitution or provisional council. The market resolves to No if these conditions are not met. Routine political events, leadership successions, internal coups preserving core structures, and partial territorial losses do not qualify for Yes. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market checks if the regime has fallen by 11:59 PM ET on this date
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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